Egypt would get a bloody nose in a River Nile water war (And why women should be allowed to kill – and be killed – in uniform)
Comment on MILITARY EXPENDITURE OF VARIOUS AFRICAN COUNTRIES (Percentage of GDP) 2005Egypt would get a bloody nose in a River Nile water war (And why women should be allowed to kill – and be killed – in uniform)
Posted:Sun 02 Jan, 2011 (10:01 EST)Every now and then, there is sabre-rattling and the beating of muffled war drums between Egypt, and the upstream East African Nile Basin countries – Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda (Eritrea has observer status) – over the use of the river’s waters. Sudan, especially in recent years, has tended to side with its Muslim neighbour to the north on the Nile.
A 1929 agreement, criticised by the East African countries as “colonial” gave Egypt, which depends almost entirely on the Nile for its water - the lion’s share of its waters, and a de facto veto on what the other Nile River states can do with the river.
Early this year, the other countries agreed a new treaty that allows for more equitable use of the Nile waters, opening the door for the upstream countries to use more of it for irrigation, industry, and hydro electricity. Egypt went ballistic with ominous threats but, fortunately, calmed down quickly.
Since then Cairo has been veering between being conciliatory, and outright bellicosity. There has been an angry exchange of words between Cairo and the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has recently accused Egypt of training rebels to overthrow his government, and repeated a favourite claim that because Egypt is a “desert” country that is unlikely to attack its desert neighbours, so its massive jungle war programme is intended to invade the tropical Nile Basin countries.
For all its might, a war over the Nile is one Egypt is unlikely to win. For one, the population of the Nile Basin countries is more than twice larger than Egypt’s 82 million. Now, Israel beat the Arab countries in various wars, although it had a much smaller population, so there in war nothing is impossible. However, if Egypt were the aggressor, it would have a huge disadvantage fighting in a wide region where its troops are hopelessly outnumbered.
Secondly, Egypt’s army has not seen any serious combat since its war (allied with Syria) against Israel in 1973, so it could be rusty. Its Nile Basin rivals – Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda – have fairly battle-hardened troops that have been continuously at war in one or the other theatre in the Great Lakes over the last 15 years.
But even more interesting, is the ability of Egypt to raise men and women for war – compared to its Nile Basin water rivals (see the data on males and females reaching military service age in Africa). All of them have more hands to coming of military draft age that they can put guns into, than Egypt – which is near the bottom of the table in this regard.
In addition, I think nations like Egypt – that for reasons of culture or religion restrict the extent to which women can fight in wars – have a great disadvantage in modern warfare. All the countries upstream of the Nile, have a relatively more liberal policy in sending their women to kill – and be killed – in war. There is something both appalling, but also and immensely democratic about that that makes for great soldiering.
RELATED DATA
MALES REACHING MILITARY SERVICE AGE ANNUALLY IN AFRICA
FEMALES REACHING MILITARY SERVICE AGE ANNUALLY IN AFRICA
A 1929 agreement, criticised by the East African countries as “colonial” gave Egypt, which depends almost entirely on the Nile for its water - the lion’s share of its waters, and a de facto veto on what the other Nile River states can do with the river.
Early this year, the other countries agreed a new treaty that allows for more equitable use of the Nile waters, opening the door for the upstream countries to use more of it for irrigation, industry, and hydro electricity. Egypt went ballistic with ominous threats but, fortunately, calmed down quickly.
Since then Cairo has been veering between being conciliatory, and outright bellicosity. There has been an angry exchange of words between Cairo and the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has recently accused Egypt of training rebels to overthrow his government, and repeated a favourite claim that because Egypt is a “desert” country that is unlikely to attack its desert neighbours, so its massive jungle war programme is intended to invade the tropical Nile Basin countries.
For all its might, a war over the Nile is one Egypt is unlikely to win. For one, the population of the Nile Basin countries is more than twice larger than Egypt’s 82 million. Now, Israel beat the Arab countries in various wars, although it had a much smaller population, so there in war nothing is impossible. However, if Egypt were the aggressor, it would have a huge disadvantage fighting in a wide region where its troops are hopelessly outnumbered.
Secondly, Egypt’s army has not seen any serious combat since its war (allied with Syria) against Israel in 1973, so it could be rusty. Its Nile Basin rivals – Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda – have fairly battle-hardened troops that have been continuously at war in one or the other theatre in the Great Lakes over the last 15 years.
But even more interesting, is the ability of Egypt to raise men and women for war – compared to its Nile Basin water rivals (see the data on males and females reaching military service age in Africa). All of them have more hands to coming of military draft age that they can put guns into, than Egypt – which is near the bottom of the table in this regard.
In addition, I think nations like Egypt – that for reasons of culture or religion restrict the extent to which women can fight in wars – have a great disadvantage in modern warfare. All the countries upstream of the Nile, have a relatively more liberal policy in sending their women to kill – and be killed – in war. There is something both appalling, but also and immensely democratic about that that makes for great soldiering.
RELATED DATA
MALES REACHING MILITARY SERVICE AGE ANNUALLY IN AFRICA
FEMALES REACHING MILITARY SERVICE AGE ANNUALLY IN AFRICA
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