Even if it’s corrupt and poor, South Sudan has no reason to fail
The Economist’s “The World in 2011” edition that has just been published, has a wonderful headline about South Sudan. Anticipating that the South will vote to secede from the larger Sudan in the upcoming January 9 referendum, it writes; “Hello country 193”.
Like other media and commentators, The Economist worries about the kind of country South Sudan will be. Will it go to war with the largely Arab north – or with itself – over its vast oil?
Will its key leaders, Sudan president Salva Kiir (a civil-war stalwart but no visionary, The Economist describes him), and his vice-president Riek Machar (“an opportunist warlord”) keep together or go for each other’s jugular?
It also writes; “This is a place of tribes, jealous of their cultures and lands. The largest think they have a natural claim on the oil revenue that will come with independence… that is a recipe for disaster.”
Nothing in this tells us just how culturally diverse South Sudan. It comprises 64 ethnic groups, and speaks a mind-boggling 400 dialects! That is very many, even by Africa’s standards.
The world’s most modern and wealthy democracy would struggle managing that level of diversity before it boils over into conflict or high tension. Add to that complication, the fact that South Sudan is one of the poorest regions in Africa, and parts of it live in near-Stone Age conditions. It therefore hardly has the smarts, let alone resources, to manage the big problems that it will need to solve with independence.
Also, another fact that is rarely mentioned, is that an independent South Sudan will be landlocked! There are only three large African countries (in terms of land size) that are landlocked – Niger, Ethiopia, and Chad. South Sudan will become the fourth. It is a huge handicap to be born with.
Thus if even if it didn’t face a myriad of other problems, including rampant corruption in the southern ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), history and geography have dealt possible “country 193” a bad hand.
South Sudan’s luck is that it is being born in a time when the world is cleverer, has lots of technology that can help solve the kind of problems it faces, and is a global village. These are advantages that other African countries didn’t have at independence. So, despite the odds, it really has no reason to fail.
Like other media and commentators, The Economist worries about the kind of country South Sudan will be. Will it go to war with the largely Arab north – or with itself – over its vast oil?
Will its key leaders, Sudan president Salva Kiir (a civil-war stalwart but no visionary, The Economist describes him), and his vice-president Riek Machar (“an opportunist warlord”) keep together or go for each other’s jugular?
It also writes; “This is a place of tribes, jealous of their cultures and lands. The largest think they have a natural claim on the oil revenue that will come with independence… that is a recipe for disaster.”
Nothing in this tells us just how culturally diverse South Sudan. It comprises 64 ethnic groups, and speaks a mind-boggling 400 dialects! That is very many, even by Africa’s standards.
The world’s most modern and wealthy democracy would struggle managing that level of diversity before it boils over into conflict or high tension. Add to that complication, the fact that South Sudan is one of the poorest regions in Africa, and parts of it live in near-Stone Age conditions. It therefore hardly has the smarts, let alone resources, to manage the big problems that it will need to solve with independence.
Also, another fact that is rarely mentioned, is that an independent South Sudan will be landlocked! There are only three large African countries (in terms of land size) that are landlocked – Niger, Ethiopia, and Chad. South Sudan will become the fourth. It is a huge handicap to be born with.
Thus if even if it didn’t face a myriad of other problems, including rampant corruption in the southern ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), history and geography have dealt possible “country 193” a bad hand.
South Sudan’s luck is that it is being born in a time when the world is cleverer, has lots of technology that can help solve the kind of problems it faces, and is a global village. These are advantages that other African countries didn’t have at independence. So, despite the odds, it really has no reason to fail.
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